Headline Inflation Edges Up to 14.1% after January Data

February 19, 2018
 

News
Rolling 12-month consumer inflation in Ukraine edged up to 14.1% in January from 13.7% in December, according to State Statistics Committee data published earlier this month. The CPI increase on a monthly basis was 1.5% in the period, compared to a monthly increase of 1.0% in December.


Commentary
The pace of consumer inflation in January was rather high, and obviously above the target rate implied by the National Bank’s inflation strategy for 2018. A 4.4% MoM rise in petroleum prices was one of the main driver behind the CPI index’s growth last month, with the other being the slide of the hryvnia against major global currencies during the first half of January. The hryvnia has strengthened by around 3% since the start of February amid the weak dollar, and therefore the current month is likely to be a better one for Ukraine’s CPI than January was.    
On a 12-month comparison basis, food prices grew by 17.9% YoY in January and alcohol prices surged by 20.6% YoY on excise duty increases. Prices in the utility sector rose by 10.7% YoY, with electricity prices alone jumping by 28.1% YoY.


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