Headline Inflation Slows by 0.8pp to 13.2% in March

April 16, 2018

Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee (UkrStat) reported that rolling 12-month consumer inflation slowed to 13.2% YoY in March from 14.0% YoY in February, according to official data released on Apr 10. UkrStat reported that CPI inflation during the month of March alone was 1.1%.

The slowdown in consumer inflation in March was widely expected as the result of a more favorable comparison base after the data from March 2017 rolled off. Another factor which helped to restrain inflation was the firmness in the national currency. The hryvnia gained 2.0% in March and traded as high as 25.95 UAH/USD last week before slipping back below the UAH 26 level. In March alone, UkrStat’s basket of food prices in Ukraine increased by 1.2% MoM, with vegetables moving higher by 5.0%. Utility service and healthcare prices edged up by 0.3% and 0.8% respectively while gasoline and other fuel prices declined by 2.5% as their import became cheaper due to the strength in the hryvnia.
For April we do not see any particular driver for inflation. We expect the month-on-month CPI to climb by 0.3% with a further slowing in headline inflation to 12.7% YoY.    

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