Ukraine’s Consumer Inflation Inches Up to 8.8% YoY in April

May 13, 2019

Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee (UkrStat) reported that rolling 12-month consumer inflation rose slightly, to 8.8% in April from 8.6% in March and 8.8% in February, according to official data released on May 8. UkrStat said that CPI inflation during the month of April alone was 1.0% MoM after 0.9% MoM for March. For 4M19 (a slightly different measurement of full-year inflation than the 12-month rolling figure) the CPI index growth was unchanged from March at 8.9% YoY.

The actual inflation figure of 8.8% YoY for April came in above our forecast of 8.1% because of an unexpected 12.6% MoM surge in vegetable prices last month which was caused by lower harvest inventories and higher prices for imported vegetables (food staple prices carry a very heavy weight in the UkrStat CPI basket). Meanwhile, the utility service component of the CPI rose by only 0.2% MoM, restraining overall inflation from a more considerable acceleration in April.    
Currently we expect that inflation in May will come in at 0.4% MoM, which would pull headline inflation back down to 8.3%. The National Bank has a forecast that consumer inflation in the country will slow to 6.3% by the year-end.

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